Trump Tariffs, Market Chaos & CoreWeave IPO Deep Dive

Tariffs are a multi-purpose negotiation lever, not just a trade tool.

Trump’s on-again/off-again tariff threats against Canada and Mexico are being used to force action on fentanyl trafficking and border security.

Why: By creating chaos, the administration maximizes leverage to extract concessions without firing a shot.

"Joe Lonsdale: He's using this to negotiate... they want people to actually crack down on this stuff and save American lives."

Reciprocal tariffs reset decades-old asymmetries.

EU cars face 2.5 % entering the US while US cars pay 10 % entering the EU; equalizing these rates is viewed as simple fairness.

Why: Restoring parity removes the implicit subsidy foreign exporters have enjoyed and levels the playing field for domestic producers.

"Jason Calacanis: Why not make the reciprocity perfect... you say 10, we say 10, you say 2.5, we say 2.5."

Tariffs, lower income taxes, and lower government spending form a three-legged stool.

Higher import taxes fund revenue while income-tax cuts free capital for on-shore investment; shrinking government employment offsets inflationary pressure.

Why: The combination attempts to shift the US from an income-tax to a consumption-tax model and redeploy labor from bureaucracy to productive industry.

"David Friedberg: Those three actions... are all interrelated to one another."

Environmental externalities justify selective tariffs.

Countries with lax environmental rules gain a cost advantage; tariffs compensate for the implicit subsidy of pollution.

Why: Without adjustment, domestic producers face higher compliance costs, encouraging offshoring of emissions rather than reduction.

"Joe Lonsdale: It's not fair to make it more expensive for us because we're doing it well, and then we outsource it for them to destroy things."

Open, outcome-based standards eliminate crony capture.

Publish every RFP, spec sheet, and evaluation criterion so that any vendor can compete on transparent metrics instead of legacy relationships.

Why: When rules are written around inputs (e.g., cathode-ray tubes) instead of outputs (e.g., drone kill radius), incumbents lock out superior solutions.

"Chamath Palihapitiya: Make these things as mechanistic as possible... publish every evaluation criteria."

Acquisition timelines must shrink from years to months.

A 1910 pistol competition took three months using a one-page spec; today’s 700-page requirements still haven’t delivered a new side-arm.

Why: Lengthy, input-heavy processes favor entrenched contractors and freeze out technical innovation.

"Joe Lonsdale: Twelve years ago we had a 700-something page document... They still don't have a new pistol today."

Unused software licenses are a measurable waste vector.

Doge found 35,855 ServiceNow licenses used by only 84 people and 11,000 Adobe Acrobat licenses with zero users.

Why: Procurement without usage tracking signals either fraud or incompetence and should trigger claw-backs and bans.

"Jason Calacanis: I want them to pay us back for the unused licenses... Ban forever."

AI power demand invalidates prior grid forecasts.

FERC reports 91 % of incremental December electricity came from renewables, yet 35,000 generation applications are backlogged.

Why: Mega-clusters scaling from 100 k to 1 M GPUs require electrons now, forcing a rethink of IRA repeal timelines.

"Chamath Palihapitiya: All of the power forecasting that we have is miscast... we don't have enough electrons."